All that he has to do is threaten to stop having Poland serve as the transit state for 90% of Ukraine’s military-technical imports from NATO, which would either be sufficient for Ukraine to comply before they’re cut off or it would likely do so shortly thereafter, but he lacks the political will.
The denazification of Ukraine is one of Russia’s explicitly stated goals in the special operation, yet it’s remained elusive ever since the UK and Poland sabotaged spring 2022’s peace deal due to their joint desire to inflict a strategic defeat on their historical (millennium-long in Poland’s case) Russian rival. Lavrov vaguely elaborated on Russia’s understanding of this objective in spring 2025 by suggesting that his country now envisages denazification to mean restoring the rights of Ukraine’s Russian minority.
This can only be achieved through domestic legal mechanisms, which is why spring 2022’s draft peace deal contained relevant clauses to this effect. Russia never planned to occupy all of Ukraine, impose full denazification, and then uphold it through an indefinite law enforcement operation across the country. Military force is seen by Russia only as a means to coerce Ukraine into doing what’s demanded of it in this regard. Russia’s aforementioned difficulty in denazifying Ukraine is nowadays relevant for Poland.
Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits sparked a political crisis in their ties that continues spiraling by the day. The ruling liberal coalition’s Defense Minister recently declared that “With Bandera, Ukraine will not join the European Union”, thus showing how public opinion in this issue is causing his government to harden its stance towards Ukraine. 74% support conservative President Karol Nawrocki’s revocation of the Order of the White Eagle from Zelensky.
Ukraine’s consequent transformation into an anti-Polish state, which wasn’t inevitable but was helped along to a large degree by Germany as explained here, is now a daily source of discussion among Poles and will likely remain so indefinitely due to Zelensky’s plan to establish a “National Pantheon”. Many expect that such infamous anti-Polish figures as Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevich will be honored along with Andrey Melnik, whose remains were recently repatriated and reburied with honors.
Worryingly, “A Senior Ukrainian Sergeant Threatened Poland With Drone Strikes Against Its Cities” in the latest sign of just how radicalized Ukrainians are becoming against Poles. If the new anti-Polish manifestations of Ukrainian Nazism are allowed to spread uncontrolled throughout the state and society, then post-conflict Ukraine will undeniably become a major security threat to Poland. The denazification of Ukraine is therefore nowadays in Poland’s interests, which it could achieve without firing a single shot.
All that it has to do is immediately stop functioning as the transit state for 90% of Ukraine’s military-technical imports from NATO, that’s it. If Poland signaled this in advance as part of an ultimatum to Ukraine and then held firm in the face of predictable German and possibly also American pressure, then Ukraine might comply without Poland having to go through with this. If Ukraine didn’t comply, then Poland would have to do what it threatened, after which Ukraine would likely comply shortly thereafter.
Poland refuses to do so under its ruling liberal coalition, however, because of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s closeness to Germany and the misguided belief that Ukraine continuing to kill more Russians is more important to Poland’s national interests than ending Ukraine’s new status as an anti-Polish state. As suggested by their recent hardening towards Ukraine’s EU aspirations, a public pressure campaign might push them in this direction, albeit solely with fall 2027’s next Sejm elections as their motivation.
